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Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32005/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare from AR 3744 (approx. N18W11) with peak time 2024-07-16T22:06Z. EUV wave, opening field lines, and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap from 2024-07-16T13:35Z to 23:35Z. While there is some field line opening associated with another M-class flare shortly beforehand, M1.6 with peak time 2024-07-16T21:24Z, the broad area of dimming is more clearly associated with this later M1.9 flare. No clear CME arrival signature seen in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T12:32Z (-7.55h, +9.12h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/07/16 22:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 13:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 4:00
POS Midpoint: 11:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.78
Travel Time: ~6.78 * 12:40 = 85:52

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-20T12:32Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/07/17 13:58Z

Lead Time: 61.90 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-07-17T22:38Z

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